FC Inter – FC Honka
Turku, 7 PM
Live on Urheilukanava and streams
The two teams are quite similar in terms of their flowing movement with short passes, and are thus able to make this an entertaining fixture. The teams are four and six points from top respectively, and both are in need of a win tonight if they want to be on the cutting edge as far as the title race is concerned.
Inter have lost two games in a row, and both have been deserved defeats. Surprisingly they are not very loyal to their style of playing when they are losing. Instead, they attack with more players and start pushing it, which makes them more vulnerable in their own end. The effect is exacerbated by the fact that their defence is very prone to errors. Ari Nyman never puts a foot wrong, but Claudio Verino is a ticking time bomb and looks like he can commit a critical mistake any minute. The insecurity moves on to full-backs Henri Lehtonen and Ville Nikkari, who are nothing more than average at their best. Joni Aho will miss the game, which is a serious blow to Inter.
Honka have been somewhat unconvincing in the early season, but last round’s 5-1 win over Jaro showed signs of improving. Furthermore, they are only missing John Weckström and Markus Paatelainen. They are long-time absentees and Honka have thus based nothing on them.
Honka seem clear favourites for this one: Inter have lost their form, and are missing Alberto Ramirez due to suspension, who is their only balancing midfielder with a run in the first team. Against Honka’s quality players, his absence could be too much to bear. If Inter can reduce the number of mistakes from the VPS game and generally have some faith in themselves, they are strong. This game could not come at a harder time though.
Both sides will fully commit to producing a good display, as this is their last game before the U21 break.
Away win
June 1st, 2009 at 11:46 am
I wrote my preview elsewhere, why not add it here as a comment as we seem to agree!
In case you do not want to read the whole thing below I can tell you – in strict confidence of course – that Honka will win 0-1.
Is one goal enough to decide who is better now? Last season both matches were drawn, and last season these two were the best in the league. They also played a dress rehearsal before the season and Honka humbled Inter by making 10 substitutions in the half-time, and yet Inter could not even challenge the b-team of Honka youngsters.
There has been a clear tendency in Inter´s matches this season. Only of the teams scores, which leads also easily to the conclusion that the first goal decides.
For Honka scoring first has been no problem, but keeping the lead has been another matter, and the title-winning favourite has struggled to kill the games. In a league of only 26 rounds getting a draw almost equals to losing. Three points are vital.
Surely, looking at the table and keeping in mind that Inter is the reigning champion, and with the home advantage in football-mad gloryhunting City of Turku one might easily think that Inter is the favourite tonight.
It is not.
Not in my papers anyway. Honka has recently found the form the already had in the pre-season (La Manga cup winners in February 2009!) and Inter are struggling in front of the goal, in fact in front of both goals as the new recruits have not yet matched the outstanding talents of Chatto and Hooiveld who left to Sweden.
Honka has pretty much the best line-up available, (except Weckström) all they need to do now is to decide which is it, there are more than 20 players available. Almost all of young, hungry, talented.
Inter is missing Aho & Ramirez and the replacements are not awful by any means, not just that good.
Another thing to bear in mind; this might be the last match in Finland for several U21 – players who are off to Sweden soon for the EURO 2009. If they succeed there will be several takers from Scandinavian leagues.
The players in the U21-squad from these two are
Joni Aho and Mika Ojala from Inter,
Tuomo Turunen, Nicholas Otaru, Jussi Vasara and Aleksandr Kokko from FC Honka.
Likely line-up Inter;
Bantamoi-/Lehtonen-Verino-Nyman-Nikkari/-Kennedy-Paajanen-Kauko-Ojala/Furuholm-Grot.
FC Honka tonight:
Peltonen/Turunen-Hakanpää-Heilala-Aalto/Otaru-Vasara-Perovuo-Savage/Vuorinen-Puustinen.
Honka is the one wagging his tail tonight and Inter will be left waiting for better times. In case the prediction of FT 0-1 is not enough for you please study the numbers below to help you with a right betting decision.
1×2 Estimation % 34.0% – 32.0% – 34.0% (2.94 – 3.12 – 2.94)
Betfair Lay FC Inter 2.70
Ladbrokes X 3.20
Moneyline 50.0% – 50.0% (2.00 – 2.00)
1x 66.0% (1.52)
x2 66.0% (1.52)
12 68.0% (1.47)
FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% – 66.0% (2.94 – 1.52)
FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% – 86.8% (7.55 – 1.15)
FC Inter +0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% – 34.0% (1.52 – 2.94)
FC Inter +1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% – 13.2% (1.15 – 7.55)
FC Inter -1.5 : Honka +1.5 13.2% – 86.8% (7.55 – 1.15)
FC Inter -1.25: Honka +1.25 15.0% – 85.0% (6.67 – 1.18)
FC Inter -1.0 : Honka +1.0 16.7% – 83.3% (5.98 – 1.20)
FC Inter -0.75: Honka +0.75 25.4% – 74.6% (3.94 – 1.34)
FC Inter -0.5 : Honka +0.5 34.0% – 66.0% (2.94 – 1.52)
FC Inter -0.25: Honka +0.25 42.0% – 58.0% (2.38 – 1.72)
FC Inter 0.0 : Honka 0.0 50.0% – 50.0% (2.00 – 2.00)
Pinnacle Honka 2.09, SBOBET Honka 2.12
FC Inter 0.25 : Honka 0.25 58.0% – 42.0% (1.72 – 2.38)
FC Inter 0.5 : Honka -0.5 66.0% – 34.0% (1.52 – 2.94)
FC Inter 0.75 : Honka -0.75 74.6% – 25.4% (1.34 – 3.94)
FC Inter 1.0 : Honka -1.0 83.3% – 16.7% (1.20 – 5.98)
FC Inter 1.25 : Honka -1.25 85.0% – 15.0% (1.18 – 6.67)
FC Inter 1.5 : Honka -1.5 86.8% – 13.2% (1.15 – 7.55)
Goals
0.5 over 86.9% (1.15) under 13.1% (7.64)
1.5 over 62.0% (1.61) under 38.0% (2.63)
Betfair U 1.5 3.40
2.5 over 34.4% (2.90) under 65.6% (1.52)
Betfair Under 2.5 1.81
3.5 over 16.1% (6.22) under 83.9% (1.19)
Betfair Under 3.5 1.31
4.5 over 6.1% (16.45) under 93.9% (1.06)
Moneyline
1 o 82.6% (1.21) u 17.4% (5.74)
2 o 47.5% (2.11) u 52.5% (1.90)
3 o 19.7% (5.08) u 80.3% (1.25)
4 o 6.8% (14.81) u 93.2% (1.07)
Did you make it this far? I see my analysis is only attracting quality people!
June 1st, 2009 at 11:48 am
Hello again, I am wondering if to bet on Turku’s AH0, it is a difficult bet, and yet again Honka may be a bit better in these times, but I think that the odds for Honka ML @ 2.75 or so are not a big value… at this point I like more Inter AH0 @ 1.95. Anyway, thanks for the preview as always, and good luck to anyone who is going to bet!
June 1st, 2009 at 11:52 am
Punteeri, thanks for stats and evaluations, but don’t you think there could be a reaction in Turku’s side, at home, after the bad results? I believe that they feel in their hearts that being the Finnish Champions they have to make a well shaped performance today. Anyway, good luck with it and thanks to you too!
June 1st, 2009 at 11:57 am
Hello to Italia too. Saw your comment and decided to handicap the Inter – Honka match for you, it is on the preview thread.
Quite an even match to be expected, remember to search for the stream 18.00 CET!
June 1st, 2009 at 12:00 pm
Of course they want to put up a good performance, they are just not quite good enough now as they were last season when they also struggled against the top teams.
I am looking forward to an interesting match, but in most local analysts mind Honka is the better of those two this season and I fully agree.
June 1st, 2009 at 4:40 pm
I wrote a comment that somehow disappeared, but I’ll try again.
Puntteri: I agree, the first goal is very important, especially if Honka score it. Against Haka and VPS, Inter went seeking for an equaliser with four strikers as the wingers were heavily involved in the attack. That leaves lots of space to exploit in the midfield, and if that happens today, Honka will be happy to take advantage.
Italian Sport Handicapper: I don’t know much about betting in terms of finding the right odds, but I do know a thing or two about football and in my books Inter’s recent lack of form makes Honka the favourites. I have no idea what AH0 or ML means, but on the basis of what I’ve seen on the pitch recently I’d go for Honka.